How LeagueMind works
- We compare, we don't take bets. LeagueMind reads the same bet across many sportsbooks and shows you every price side by side. We never take a bet, hold money or move a stake. When you want to bet, you do it at the sportsbook.
- We work out a fair price. Each sportsbook builds in a cut. We remove it and average the market to estimate how likely each outcome really is.
- We flag where a price beats it. When one book pays more than that fair estimate, it shows up as a suggestion with its edge, a trust score and the time we saw the price.
- Every pick stays on the record. Published picks are graded against the final result and kept on a public record. A pick we pull is shown as withdrawn, never deleted.
- You can start without an account. Today's top suggestion and the market comparison are free to view. An account adds your leagues, your bets and more suggestions.
The short version: LeagueMind is sports analysis. It shows where prices disagree and why, and you decide what to do with it.
Next: Reading a suggestion card →Reading a suggestion card
J.T. Miller Over 0.5 assists
1+125 @ DraftKings
2Every suggestion has the same parts:
- The pick: a team or player and what has to happen. “J.T. Miller Over 0.5 assists” means he needs at least one assist.
- The price: the odds at one sportsbook, like +125 @ DraftKings. Prices differ by book, so we show where it's best.
- Edge: how much better that price is than our fair estimate. More below.
- Trust and grade: how much to believe the edge. A is the strongest, D the weakest.
- As of: when we last checked the price.
The short version: the pick says what has to happen, the price says what it pays, and edge and trust together say whether the price looks good.
Next: Reading odds →Reading odds
American odds tell you what a bet pays.
- Plus odds (+125): a $100 bet wins $125 profit. You get $225 back if it wins.
- Minus odds (−120): you bet $120 to win $100 profit. You get $220 back if it wins.
Odds also hide a chance. +125 means the book is pricing it like a 44% chance; −120 is like 55%.
You bet $10 at +150. If it wins, you get $25 back: your $10 plus $15 profit. You bet $20 at −200. If it wins, you get $30 back: your $20 plus $10 profit. If either loses, you lose what you bet.
The short version: plus means an underdog that pays more than you risk; minus means a favorite where you risk more than you win.
Next: Kinds of bets →Kinds of bets
- Moneyline: who wins the game.
- Spread: a team wins by more than a set number of points (or loses by less). Chiefs −3.5 means the Chiefs must win by 4 or more.
- Total (over/under): the two teams' combined score lands over or under a number.
- Player prop: a single player's stat, like over 249.5 passing yards or over 0.5 assists.
- Parlay: several picks combined into one bet. It pays more, but every pick has to win.
Chiefs −3.5 vs Raiders, total 47.5. The Chiefs win 27–24.
- Chiefs moneyline: wins (they won the game).
- Chiefs −3.5: loses (they won by 3, not 4 or more).
- Over 47.5: wins (27 + 24 = 51).
- A parlay of all three: loses, because one pick lost.
The short version: you're always betting on one specific outcome, and the price tells you how likely the book thinks it is.
Next: Straight bets vs parlays →Straight bets vs parlays
A straight bet is one pick on its own. A parlay joins two or more picks into one bet: it pays much more, but every pick has to win.
- The book's cut stacks up. Each pick in a parlay carries the book's margin, and a parlay multiplies them together. Two picks cost you roughly twice the cut of one; three picks, about three times.
- Parlays hit far less often. Two coin-flip picks both win about 1 time in 4. Three win about 1 time in 8.
Two coin-flip picks, each at −110.
- Two straight bets, $10 each: each pays $9.09 profit. On average you lose about $0.45 per bet, about 4.5% of what you bet.
- One two-pick parlay, $10: pays about $26.45 profit (+264). A fair price would pay $30 (+300). On average you lose about $0.89, about 9% of what you bet.
- Three-pick parlay, $10: pays about $59.58 (+596) against a fair $70. On average you lose about $1.30, 13%.
The short version: straight bets are the better default; every pick you add to a parlay raises the payout and the book's take.
Next: The fair price →The fair price
Sportsbooks build a small cut into every price. That's why both sides of a coin-flip game are often −110: add up the chances and you get about 105%, not 100%. The extra 5% is the book's margin.
LeagueMind gathers the same bet from many books, removes that cut, and averages what's left. That gives a fair chance: our best estimate of how likely the outcome really is, according to the whole market.
Five books price the same game. Once each book's cut is removed, their chances for the home team are 52%, 53%, 51%, 52% and 52%. The fair chance is about 52%. A book offering the home team at +105, which prices it like 48.8%, is paying more than the market thinks it deserves.
The short version: the fair price is what the bet would cost if no sportsbook took a cut.
Next: Edge →Edge
Edge is the fair chance minus the chance the price implies.
Example: the fair chance is 45.7%, and a book offers +125, which prices it like 44.4%. The edge is 1.3 points: the price pays a little more than the outcome deserves.
- Edge is about the long run. Over many bets like this, you'd expect to come out a little ahead. Any single bet can still lose, and most of these lose more often than they win.
Same pick, two books. The fair chance is 45.7%.
- Book A: +125, priced like 44.4%. Edge +1.3.
- Book B: +110, priced like 47.6%. Edge −1.9: worse than fair.
Same player, same stat; only the price changed. That's why we show the best book.
The short version: edge says how good the price is, not how likely the pick is to win.
Next: Trust and grade →Trust and grade
Trust is a 0–100 score for how much to believe an edge. It combines five checks:
- Edge strength: how big the gap is.
- Market agreement: do the books agree on the fair chance?
- Line stability: has the price stayed steady, or is it jumping around?
- Data completeness: do we have all the information we need?
- Liquidity: how many books are pricing it?
The grade is shorthand for trust: A is 75 and up, B 60–74, C 45–59, D under 45. A grade is not a win chance.
Read edge and trust together. A 1.1-point edge with trust 45 is sounder than a 1.8-point edge with trust 32.
Two suggestions side by side.
- Over 0.5 assists, +165, edge 1.1, trust 45, grade C: the books agree and the price has held steady.
- Over 0.5 assists, +300, edge 1.8, trust 32, grade D: only two books price it, and it moved twice this morning.
The first is the sounder read even though its edge is smaller.
The short version: edge is the opportunity, trust is how much to believe it.
Next: “As of” times →“As of” times
Prices move all day. Every price shows when we last saw it, in your local time.
The card says +125 as of 11:55 AM. At 6:00 PM the sportsbook shows +105. The price that made the edge is gone, so the edge on the card no longer applies.
The short version: a price is only as good as the moment we saw it.
Next: Bankroll basics →Bankroll basics
- Decide in advance how much you're comfortable losing, and treat that as your whole budget.
- Keep each bet small and about the same size. Many people use 1–2% of their budget per bet.
- Expect losing streaks. Even good prices lose often; edge only shows up over many bets.
- Never chase a loss with a bigger bet.
A $200 budget at 1–2% is $2–4 a bet. Ten losses in a row costs $20–40, and you're still in. At $50 a bet, four losses ends it.
The short version: small, steady bets let an edge play out; big swings let luck decide.
See today's suggestions →Questions
How do I read American odds?
Plus means an underdog that pays more than you risk; minus means a favorite where you risk more than you win. More →
What is an edge in sports betting?
Edge says how good the price is, not how likely the pick is to win. More →
Is a bigger edge always better?
No. Real edges are usually small, 1 to 3 points. A huge edge often means a price is out of date or one book made a mistake, which is why we pair it with trust. More →
What does the trust score mean?
Edge is the opportunity, trust is how much to believe it. More →
Are parlays better than straight bets?
Straight bets are the better default; every pick you add to a parlay raises the payout and the book's take. More →
Does LeagueMind take bets?
No. LeagueMind is sports analysis. It shows where prices disagree and why, and you decide what to do with it. More →
Today's top suggestion and the market comparison are free to view, no account needed.
See today's suggestions